XRP has printed a classic bull flag pattern on the daily chart, raising hopes of a major rally as investors await key decisions on spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Analysts say a breakout above resistance levels could push the token to $5, while optimism grows over regulatory approval in the United States.

Technical Setup Targets $5

At press time, XRP is trading at $2.86, consolidating within a bull flag formation. This chart pattern typically follows a sharp upward move, with a period of sideways or downward consolidation before a renewed rally.

A daily close above the $3 resistance level would confirm a bullish breakout, setting up a potential 77% climb toward the $5 target. The next technical hurdles lie at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3.08, $3.40, and the multi-year high of $3.66 recorded in July.

On the downside, the 100-day SMA at $2.68 and the 200-day SMA at $2.48 remain crucial support zones. Analysts warn that losing these levels could invalidate the bullish structure.

Analysts Eye Key Support Levels

Crypto analyst Crypto Pulse noted that XRP must hold above the August low of $2.75 to maintain its bullish momentum.
“Lose $2.75 and we could see a retest of the $2.5–$2.6 zone before another push higher,” the analyst said, while emphasising that the overall outlook remains positive if support holds.

Buyers are also watching the $2.73 level as a critical threshold. A failure to defend this zone could open the door to a correction toward $2, weakening the bullish narrative.

SEC Deadlines Boost Optimism

The market’s attention now shifts to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is due to decide on several spot XRP ETF applications in the coming weeks. Deadlines for most proposals fall between 18 and 25 October, while the Franklin Templeton ETF faces a decision date of 14 November.

More than ten applications are currently under review, following Ripple’s 2024 court victory clarifying that XRP is not a security. Approval could pave the way for institutional investment and significantly expand market liquidity.

Rising Approval Odds

Betting markets reflect growing confidence in a positive outcome. Polymarket data shows approval odds have surged to 87% from 64% in early August. Industry figures are even more optimistic.

Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, suggested the chances of approval may be “closer to 100%,” while Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas estimated a 95% probability, citing clearer regulation and recent leadership changes at the SEC.

Potential for Larger Upside

An approved XRP ETF could act as a catalyst for further gains. Analysts suggest that the influx of institutional capital may drive prices beyond the immediate $5 target, with projections ranging between $10 and $20. Some bullish forecasts even suggest XRP could test the $50 mark if heavyweight asset managers such as BlackRock enter the market.

For now, XRP traders are watching the charts closely. A breakout above $3 may ignite the next leg of the rally, but failure to hold key support could leave the token vulnerable to another period of consolidation.