Zcash has fallen sharply after an explosive rally, with analysts divided on whether the recent drop signals a healthy correction or the beginning of a deeper slide. ZEC has declined around thirty percent from its November peak of $750, fuelling concerns that the surge was driven by unsustainable hype.

Technical Patterns Point Toward a Steeper Pullback

ZEC is currently trading inside a symmetrical triangle on the four hour chart following a dramatic 1,500 percent climb since late September. This pattern reflects uncertainty among traders after the rally lost momentum.
ZEC recently bounced from the 200 four hour exponential moving average, which often acts as key support. This rebound hints at a potential short term move toward the upper boundary of the triangle, close to the 0.786 Fibonacci zone near $686.

However, symmetrical triangles can break either upward or downward. With broader crypto sentiment under pressure from ambiguous Federal Reserve policy and weakness in high valuation AI stocks, analysts believe a downward break is more likely.

Risk of a Drop Toward $282 in Early 2026

If ZEC falls below the lower trendline of the triangle, the next major target sits near $282. This level is roughly fifty percent below current prices and aligns with ZEC’s early October highs as well as the twenty week exponential moving average. Such a decline would fit the profile of a cooling phase after a parabolic advance.

BNB’s Past Parabola Offers a Warning Signal

Trader NebraskanGooner has compared ZEC’s recent structure with BNB’s pattern ahead of its major correction in 2021. ZEC, like BNB at the time, has slipped below its parabolic support after failing to maintain upward momentum.
Many Zcash supporters anticipated a push toward $1,000 earlier in November, yet the structure broke down instead.
Historical behaviour of similar parabolas suggests corrections of at least sixty percent from the top. That places ZEC’s potential downside in the $220 to $280 region if the pattern continues.

Pump and Dump Concerns Gain Attention

Fears of artificial hype grew after venture capitalist Mark Moss shared messages from agencies offering paid ZEC promotions.
Analyst Rajat Soni added further caution, arguing that fabricated headlines about ZEC reaching $100,000 were part of attempts to generate “exit liquidity.” These claims have deepened scepticism surrounding the recent rally.

Crypto Veterans Maintain Optimism

Not everyone foresees a collapse. Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, along with Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, continue to express confidence in Zcash. Hayes has even predicted a long term move toward $10,000, suggesting that the current volatility could be part of a larger bullish cycle.
Despite this optimism, short term signals remain mixed, leaving traders alert to either a recovery toward the triangle’s upper resistance or a continuation of the correction.