Bitcoin continued to hover near the $91,000 mark even as global markets strengthened on rising expectations of an imminent US interest rate cut. The cryptocurrency has failed to reclaim the $93,000 level despite supportive macroeconomic signals, leaving traders questioning what could ignite the next sustained leg of its rally.

ETF Flows and Options Activity Signal Caution

ETF inflows remained muted during the week ending 28 November, with only $70 million added to Bitcoin exchange-traded products. This lack of institutional demand has prevented strong upside momentum even as broader risk assets gained.

Derivatives data also reflected caution. Bitcoin monthly futures traded at a 4 percent premium over the spot price, unchanged from the previous week. Under normal market conditions this basis sits between 5 percent and 10 percent, suggesting limited appetite for leveraged long positions after an 18 percent price correction over the past month.

Options markets painted a similar picture. Trading volumes for put contracts continued to outpace call options on Thursday and Friday. A balanced derivatives environment typically requires put-to-call premium volumes of 1.3 times or lower. Although the ratio has improved from the extreme 5 times peak recorded on 21 November, sentiment remains clearly defensive.

Weak US Labour Data Fuels Rate-Cut Expectations

Bond futures data from CME Group showed traders assigning an 87 percent probability to a rate cut at the 10 December meeting, up from 71 percent the previous week. The shift followed fresh signs of strain in the labour market. Continuing claims rose to 1.96 million in the week ending 15 November, prompting expectations that the Federal Reserve may move sooner to support growth.

A more expansionary policy backdrop normally benefits scarce assets such as Bitcoin. However, the cryptocurrency has yet to fully respond to the improvement in macro conditions, partly due to subdued flows and the absence of aggressive positioning by major market participants.

Institutional Movements Add to Market Uncertainty

Companies that hold Bitcoin as a treasury reserve did not expand their holdings over the past fortnight, according to CoinGlass data. The most recent addition was on 17 November. A separate development raised fresh questions when 1,163 BTC linked to SpaceX shifted to two new addresses on Thursday. The move led to speculation about a possible sale although there has been no statement from the company. Some analysts suggested the transfer could reflect a change of custodian rather than liquidation.

Stock Market Rally and AI Progress Improve Risk Sentiment

US equities delivered strong gains through the holiday period. The S&P 500 traded within 1 percent of its record high as optimism grew around future liquidity support. Gold climbed 3.8 percent on the week and silver reached a new all-time high.

Comments from President Donald Trump also added to the risk-on environment. He reiterated his plan to implement significant income tax reductions, with revenue expected from import tariffs. Investors believe such measures will place further pressure on government debt levels, creating favourable conditions for scarce assets.

Concerns within the artificial intelligence sector eased following the performance of Google’s custom TPU chip. The technology enabled Gemini to surpass benchmarks in coding, maths, scientific reasoning and multimodal tasks while consuming far less energy than GPU-based systems. Alphabet rose 6.8 percent on the week, helping calm fears surrounding Nvidia’s growth outlook.

Bitcoin Remains in a Critical Holding Pattern

Despite supportive macroeconomic trends, Bitcoin appears increasingly disconnected from broader market moves as its correlation with major technology stocks continues to fade. Analysts believe the cryptocurrency must hold above $90,000 to keep bullish momentum alive.

A convincing move above $93,000 will likely require renewed ETF inflows, reduced risk aversion in derivatives markets and clarity around institutional balances. If the Federal Reserve does deliver a December rate cut, traders expect a potential liquidity wave that could strengthen the case for a push toward the psychological $100,000 level.