Bitcoin is showing worrying signs of entering a new bear market, as major technical indicators on the weekly chart repeat patterns last seen in 2022. Analysts say the latest trendline crossover and weakening performance against silver are raising serious concerns among traders and long term investors.
With similarities to the last major market downturn becoming more visible, market observers are debating whether Bitcoin is once again entering a prolonged phase of weakness.
Long Term Moving Averages Turn Bearish
A key warning signal has appeared on Bitcoin’s weekly price chart. The 21 week exponential moving average has crossed below the 50 week exponential moving average for the first time since April 2022.
This type of crossover is widely regarded as a bearish indicator. It often suggests that short and medium term momentum is weakening compared to the long term trend.
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital highlighted the development, stating that the so called bull market moving averages have now officially turned negative. The last time this pattern appeared was during the early stages of the 2022 bear market.
Back then, Bitcoin continued to fall for several months before finally reaching a long term bottom.
Parallels with the 2022 Market Collapse
The April 2022 crossover marked the beginning of Bitcoin’s previous major downturn. After the signal appeared, the price declined steadily before bottoming out in November 2022 at around 15,600 dollars.
That level has not been revisited since and remains a significant milestone in Bitcoin’s price history.
Analysts now warn that a similar timeline could unfold. In 2022, it took nearly seven months from the crossover for Bitcoin to reach its lowest point. If history repeats itself, the current signal could point to further weakness extending well into 2026.
Some market watchers believe this supports the traditional four year Bitcoin cycle theory, which links price movements to the cryptocurrency’s halving events. Under this model, major bull and bear markets tend to follow a predictable rhythm.
Although some traders have questioned this cycle due to weak performance in late 2025, the latest technical signals appear to fit the historical pattern.
Price Targets and Market Expectations
Following the bearish crossover, analysts are discussing possible downside targets. Some believe Bitcoin may struggle to hold higher levels and could face strong selling pressure around the 65,000 dollar mark.
While this would still be far above previous bear market lows, it would represent a significant decline from recent highs.
Market sentiment has also been affected by broader economic uncertainty, including interest rate policies and global financial conditions. These factors have added to volatility in both traditional and digital asset markets.
Traders are now closely watching whether Bitcoin can regain strength above its key moving averages. Failure to do so could reinforce fears of a prolonged downturn.
Bitcoin Weakens Against Silver
Another striking comparison with 2022 comes from Bitcoin’s performance relative to silver. When measured against the precious metal, Bitcoin has fallen back to levels last seen during the collapse of the FTX exchange.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin is now trading at similar ratios to those seen at the end of the last bear market. He described the chart as remarkable and highlighted how quickly silver has strengthened in comparison.
According to his analysis, silver has made its gains in roughly half the time it took Bitcoin to complete its entire bull run this cycle. This has pushed the Bitcoin to silver ratio back towards levels seen between 2017 and 2020.
This shift suggests that investors may be favouring traditional safe haven assets over cryptocurrencies during periods of uncertainty.
Fiat Currency and the Bigger Picture
Despite the negative signals in the Bitcoin to silver ratio, analysts point out that both assets have risen significantly in terms of US dollar value since 2022.
Daan Crypto Trades argued that this highlights a broader issue, namely the depreciation of fiat currencies. In his view, much of the apparent price growth in both Bitcoin and silver reflects weakening purchasing power rather than pure market strength.
Earlier this month, some analysts also suggested that Bitcoin has struggled to compete with gold as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. Gold has continued to attract institutional and retail investors seeking stability, while Bitcoin has faced renewed volatility.
This changing perception could influence future capital flows between digital assets and traditional stores of value.
Outlook for Bitcoin Investors
The recent technical crossover and weakening performance against silver have revived concerns about a new bear market. While past patterns do not guarantee future outcomes, many traders are taking a cautious approach.
Some investors are reducing exposure, while others are waiting for clearer confirmation before making major decisions. Long term supporters argue that Bitcoin has repeatedly recovered from downturns and remains a key asset in the digital economy.
However, in the short to medium term, uncertainty is likely to remain high. Market participants will be watching closely for signs of renewed momentum or further breakdowns in price structure.
Whether the current trend truly marks the start of another prolonged decline will become clearer in the coming months.
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