Data shows institutional buying is crucial to sustaining Bitcoin’s upward momentum near $100K.

Long-Term Holders Ramp Up Sales in November

Bitcoin’s recent price surge to nearly $100,000 has tempted long-term holders (LTHs) to cash in on profits. On-chain analytics from Glassnode reveal that wallets holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days, typically the most stable investors, have flipped to net sellers.

As of 20 November, LTH net position decreased by 245,000 BTC over 30 days—the largest drop since April. This marks a significant shift after months of accumulation.

ETFs May Hold the Key to Price Stability

Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher highlighted the need for robust institutional inflows to counteract the growing sell pressure. He emphasised that strong demand from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is critical.

“ETF flows must remain strong, or else long-term holder sell pressure may catch up to the market,” Deutscher stated.

Recent data from Farside Investors revealed record net inflows of over $770 million into ETFs on 20 November. However, accompanying charts suggest that even these robust inflows are struggling to offset the sell-off from LTHs.

Profit-Taking Likely Amid Unrealised Gains

Glassnode noted that Bitcoin investors are sitting on significant unrealised profits, increasing the probability of more sell-side activity. Its market value to realised value (MVRV) metric, a measure of profitability, is nearing levels last seen during Bitcoin’s $73,800 peak in March.

The current price of $89,500 signals a statistically significant level of unrealised gains, heightening the likelihood of profit-taking.

Bull Markets Remain Resilient Despite Sell Pressure

Despite these risks, Glassnode observed that previous bull markets have sustained elevated profit-taking phases for extended periods, provided they are supported by sufficient capital inflows.

While Bitcoin’s supply dynamics are shifting, the ability of institutional players to absorb sell pressure will determine whether the market can sustain its breakout. Without such support, the current rally may face increased headwinds.