Prediction markets strongly favour six-figure Bitcoin prices, while institutional inflows and sell-side pressure shape the market.

85% Odds of Bitcoin Reaching $100K by New Year

Bitcoin’s journey toward a six-figure valuation appears inevitable, with prediction markets assigning an 85% chance of BTC surpassing $100,000 by 31 December 2024. Data from the betting platform Kalshi also suggests a 9% probability of the price hitting $150,000, and even a slim chance of reaching $250,000 or higher. The median forecast positions Bitcoin at $125,000 by the end of the year.

“This level of confidence shows markets are pricing in a potential breakout rally,” noted The Kobeissi Letter on X, calling the predictions “wild.” A $125,000 Bitcoin price would push its market capitalisation to an estimated $2.5 trillion by early 2025.

Bitcoin Rallies 55% in Q4 2024
Bitcoin has already seen a significant rise of nearly 40% in November and 55% in Q4, according to CoinGlass data. This surge follows Bitcoin’s breakthrough past its old all-time highs earlier this year, with minimal retracement or consolidation. Despite expectations for a potential pullback, the market remains firmly bullish, with $100,000 considered the next psychological barrier.

ETF Inflows Absorb Sell-Side Pressure
Institutional demand through Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) has played a critical role in maintaining momentum. Glassnode’s The Week Onchain report highlights that ETFs have absorbed over 90% of the sell-side pressure from long-term holders (LTHs).

However, unrealised profits among LTHs are reaching extreme levels, driving an increase in coin distribution. While this adds temporary selling pressure, ETF inflows continue to provide a robust counterbalance. The past week saw record-breaking inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs, with assets under management exceeding $100 billion.

Outlook for Bitcoin Remains Bright
As 2024 nears its close, Bitcoin’s trajectory suggests a strong finish. With institutional inflows and market sentiment favouring six-figure valuations, all eyes are on whether Bitcoin can reach the elusive $100,000 milestone and beyond.