Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing a rare period of low volatility, but experts warn that this stability might not last long. Nick Forster, founder of Derive, an AI-powered on-chain options platform, believes BTC could soon witness major price swings in either direction. With macroeconomic events and geopolitical tensions looming, the market may be gearing up for a storm of volatility.

Bitcoin’s Current Low Volatility Phase

Since March 12, Bitcoin has been consolidating within the $80K-$85K range after a sharp drop from its $100K all-time high. This downturn was triggered by multiple factors, including:

• Donald Trump’s tariffs, which rattled global markets.
• Lack of new BTC purchases for the U.S. strategic reserve, leading to investor disappointment.

As a result, key volatility metrics have declined. At-the-money (ATM) volatility has dropped to 49%, nearing its monthly low of 45%, while realized volatility has fallen from 91% to 54%.

Why Volatility Could Return Soon

Forster explains that volatility is mean-reverting, meaning periods of low volatility are often followed by strong price fluctuations. He expects BTC’s volatility to rise back to 60-70%, similar to levels seen in February.

However, increased volatility doesn’t guarantee a price rise or fall—it simply means Bitcoin could experience sharp swings in either direction.

Key Triggers for Bitcoin’s Next Move

Several factors could spark a volatility surge, including:

• Geopolitical events: A ceasefire (or lack thereof) in Ukraine could significantly impact markets.
• Regulatory changes: The Trump administration’s stance on crypto could shift, affecting investor sentiment.
• Federal Reserve decisions: The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged but could signal future rate cuts, influencing BTC’s price.

The equity market’s performance will also play a role. If stocks continue to slide, Bitcoin could follow suit, accelerating its decline.

What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin?

The coming weeks could be crucial for BTC’s price action. If the Federal Reserve hints at aggressive rate cuts, crypto bulls may regain momentum. However, if inflation concerns persist, rate cuts could be limited, keeping BTC under pressure.

For now, traders should brace for turbulence as Bitcoin prepares for its next major move—whether up or down remains to be seen.