Bitcoin’s price action has remained lackluster, but this week’s macroeconomic events could provide the jolt traders have been waiting for. From FTX creditor payouts to a high-profile Trump-Musk interview, here’s what could move the crypto markets.

FTX Payouts: Will It Boost Crypto?

FTX, once the world’s third-largest crypto exchange, is beginning its first round of creditor repayments. Convenience class creditors (claims under $50,000) will receive full repayment with 9% annual interest.

Optimists believe a portion of this $1.2 billion payout could re-enter the market, pushing valuations higher. However, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen argues the amount is too small to make a significant impact. He estimates that only around $3 billion from larger creditor payouts may return to crypto—just a month’s worth of Bitcoin net inflows.

Solana (SOL) could benefit the most, given FTX’s historic investments in its ecosystem. Mena Theodorou, co-founder of Coinstash, believes some recipients may reinvest in SOL, which has surged over 500% in the past year.

Trump-Musk Interview: Political & Crypto Volatility

Elon Musk and Donald Trump will sit down with Fox News’ Sean Hannity on February 19, a day before the FOMC meeting. The discussion is expected to cover politics, tariffs, immigration, and potentially digital assets.

With Trump increasingly aligning with crypto and Musk’s deep ties to the industry, any comments on regulation or institutional adoption could spark market volatility. Trump has hinted at creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve, though his administration has yet to take concrete steps.

FOMC Minutes: A Signal for Interest Rate Moves?

On February 21, the Federal Reserve will release minutes from its January meeting, where it left interest rates unchanged. Recent inflation data (CPI and PPI) came in higher than expected, reducing hopes for imminent rate cuts.

Investors will closely analyze the minutes for any signs that the Fed sees current policy as overly restrictive. If there’s no indication of a rate cut, risk assets, including crypto, may face downward pressure.

Consensus Hong Kong: Web3 & Blockchain Focus

CoinDesk’s Consensus Hong Kong event kicks off on February 20, bringing over 270 speakers and thousands of attendees from 90+ countries. The event will delve into blockchain technology and digital asset investments in Asia, potentially influencing market sentiment.