XRP’s post-Swell enthusiasm has quickly evaporated as the token extended its November losing streak. Despite Ripple unveiling major partnerships and product updates during its flagship Swell conference, XRP has slipped sharply, signaling renewed bearish pressure in the market.

XRP Drops Over 9% After Swell Conference

XRP fell more than 9% in the hours following Ripple’s Swell event, sliding from its November 5 high of around $2.40 to roughly $2.19 at the time of writing. The selloff erased most of the short-lived rally seen during the conference, continuing a pattern that has played out repeatedly in previous years.

This year’s Swell, held on November 4–5 in New York, featured several high-profile announcements. Ripple revealed a $500 million funding round backed by Citadel Securities and Fortress Investment Group, new integrations for its RLUSD stablecoin, and an early look at a decentralized lending protocol on the XRP Ledger.

Yet, despite the strong lineup of updates, the market reaction was muted. Traders once again appeared to follow the familiar “buy the rumor, sell the news” cycle that tends to accompany Ripple’s annual showcase.

Historical Pattern of Post-Swell Declines

Looking back at XRP’s performance around previous Swell events, history appears to be repeating itself. In four of the past five years since 2020, the token has delivered negative returns between the Swell conference and the end of the year. The excitement surrounding Ripple’s announcements often fades within days, as investors shift focus back to broader market trends and technical indicators.

This time, XRP’s decline comes amid a cooling crypto market environment. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $100,000 following weakness in global equities and tightening liquidity conditions in the United States. That drop has weighed on altcoins, adding pressure on tokens like XRP that had already shown signs of exhaustion.

Bear Flag Breakdown Signals Renewed Weakness

Technical analysis paints a cautious picture for XRP in the near term. The token recently confirmed a classic bear flag breakdown, suggesting the possibility of further downside movement. The pattern emerged after XRP’s sharp fall from about $3.60 in early September, followed by a short period of upward consolidation toward $2.60.

After failing to break above the flag’s upper resistance, XRP has since dropped below the lower boundary, a move that typically confirms the continuation of a downtrend. This breakdown points to potential losses toward the $1.65 to $1.70 range, aligning with previous support levels seen in April.

Adding to the bearish signals, XRP’s chart is on the verge of forming a “death cross” — a technical event that occurs when the 50-period exponential moving average falls below the 200-period EMA. Such crossovers often mark sustained downward momentum and can reinforce selling pressure among traders.

Key Support Levels and Long-Term Accumulation Zones

While the technical outlook looks heavy in the short term, there may be a silver lining for long-term investors. The projected downside target near $1.65 aligns closely with XRP’s aggregated realized price, based on on-chain data from Glassnode.

This realized price represents the average cost basis of all holders on the network — essentially what the average investor paid for their XRP. Historically, when market prices approach this level, it tends to attract accumulation from long-term holders who view it as a fair value zone.

If XRP does reach this support area, buying activity could pick up, helping to stabilize the market and potentially set the stage for a rebound.

Market Sentiment and Outlook

Despite the optimism surrounding Ripple’s expanding ecosystem and institutional partnerships, traders remain cautious. Broader market sentiment is being shaped more by macroeconomic uncertainty and Bitcoin’s trajectory than by company-specific developments.

For now, XRP’s technical setup suggests more pain before any potential recovery. A sustained break below $2 could open the path toward the $1.65 target zone, while reclaiming $2.40 would be needed to invalidate the bearish scenario.

In the coming weeks, investors will be watching whether Ripple’s new initiatives — particularly its stablecoin integrations and upcoming decentralized finance products — can deliver real network growth. Until then, XRP appears locked in a familiar cycle: big announcements, brief rallies, and quick retreats.

If history is any guide, traders may be waiting for a more convincing shift in sentiment — or a solid base near long-term support — before turning bullish again.